Opinion: "Difficulty in recruiting" predicts the end of the low wage era?

At the beginning of the new year, all enterprises in Guangdong were working hard to start the new year. However, due to the large number of overworkers, as in previous years, many factories in the Pearl River Delta have suffered a "labor shortage" this year. Even if they increase their wages or red envelopes, it is difficult to recruit people. Many workers choose to stay and work in their hometowns, and their wages are still rising at home.

Since 2004, after the Spring Festival every year, many cities in the south face labor shortages. In the previous stage, China’s economic growth experienced a “golden decade”, and the year-on-year GDP growth rate maintained at around 10%. The rapid economic growth has greatly increased the demand for labor. Until now, the status of the “buyer's market” has gone forever. This also means that the era of low wages for labor has ended.

This turning point is called "Lewis Turning Point" in economics. American economist Lewis has divided the economic growth of developing countries into two phases. In the first stage, because the level of industrial wages is much higher than that of agricultural production, no matter how much the demand for labor expands, the total energy source of the company is continuously receiving labor, that is, there is an infinite supply of labor. In the second stage, the labor force will become scarce like other factors of production. The level of wages will no longer be fixed, and the fruits and benefits of economic development must be reasonably distributed between capitalists and workers.

Many enterprises in the Pearl River Delta are characterized by labor-intensive industries. At present, the most serious shortage of labor is electronics, FURNITURE, clothing, toys and other enterprises. This kind of labor shortage is essentially a labor shortage of labor-intensive enterprises. In the Pearl River Delta, many companies rely on low wages to realize the low cost of their products. For a long time, companies have been arranging production under the assumption of constant labor costs. This kind of "low labor cost-highly competitive" development model squeezing laborers' reasonable labor treatment and security is also an unsustainable development model.

There are two ways to resolve this "recruitment difficulties". First, transfer intensive industries to areas with lower labor costs. It can be said that the gradient transfer of the industry is an inevitable historical development. Since the 1980s, the newly industrialized countries and regions such as the Asian Four Little Dragons have shifted their labor-intensive industries to the coastal areas of China. Nowadays, the Pearl River Delta has also reached the moment of unloading cages and changing birds. Only by undertaking higher value-added and more competitive industries can we achieve sustainable development. It can be predicted that under the influence of family planning, urbanization, and the rise of the central and western regions, the labor shortage in the coastal areas will only become more and more serious. "Difficulty in recruitment" is the original driving force for the transfer of industrial gradients. As a place of transfer, the Pearl River Delta should face this challenge.

The second approach is to reduce the cost of labor migration and increase the net income of farmers in migrating to cities. Economist Cai Wei believes that the phenomenon of shortage of migrant workers in the Pearl River Delta region does not mean that China's labor shortage period has arrived. In his view, it is because of the inability to obtain urban **. Migrant workers are treated unequally with urban residents, resulting in high migration costs, which limits the free flow of labor.

Indeed, compared with the older generation, the appeal of the new generation of migrant workers is no longer “make money to go home and build a house”. They hope to be able to take root and sprout in this city, hoping that the city can give them equal treatment and dignity. Otherwise, they will choose to vote with their feet and abandon those cities that discriminate against them.

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